empty
21.11.2022 06:48 PM
Brazil is preparing for a serious recession

Last Friday, Roberto Campos Neto, the central bank's president, announced changes to the fiscal plan, indicating that a deterioration in the fiscal situation might necessitate a change in monetary policy.

Brazil is preparing for a severe economic downturn.

This image is no longer relevant

The words are primarily addressed to the transition team of Brazil's incoming President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who intends to include new fiscal policy commitments in the proposed constitutional amendment.

The proposed amendment will specifically include the commitment to the new fiscal anchor, which exempts nearly 200 billion reais ($37.16 billion) in social spending from the constraints of the nation's budget.

The first step toward an unregulated economy was taken with this one. So, following the election, Lula pledged to remove the constitutional spending cap, which limits public spending growth by taking the previous year's inflation into account, without mentioning the new fiscal anchor that will take its place. Investors were alarmed by the news because it raised the possibility of a record-high rise in public debt and a change in monetary policy. Brazilian assets consequently reacted negatively by devaluing the real.

The head of the Brazilian National Bank today also spoke unfavorably about the substantial increase in spending that the incoming administration of the new president, who takes office on January 1, has planned.

Remember that the Central Bank had warned that it might resume tightening monetary policy if expected disinflation did not materialize after 12 straight increases, which caused interest rates to rise to 13.75% from a record low of 2% in March 2021.

After winning the elections, the new president is undoubtedly attempting to win over a devoted electorate, but new loan pools could burden Brazilians. In addition, the advantageous period of low dollar prices and unrestricted borrowing has passed. Taking out dollar loans at this time would be foolish. Although it is entirely justified given the current circumstances, the new government may continue to restrict itself to domestic loan bonds and avoid attracting external borrowings.

Egor Danilov,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

美國對決全世界:川普關稅引發市場從華爾街到歐洲崩跌

美國股市在週四暴跌,創下多年間最痛苦的單日損失,唐納德·特朗普出乎意料的激進關稅舉措引發了全球市場的恐慌。 不久前,華爾街正在一波反彈中享受高峰,市場在白宮承諾支持商業活動的背景下達到歷史高位。

Thomas Frank 12:09 2025-04-04 UTC+2

4月4日美國市場新聞摘要

在唐納·川普宣布新的進口關稅後,市場暴跌,引發了美國股票的廣泛拋售。道瓊斯、NASDAQ和S&P 500都出現了顯著的損失。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 10:55 2025-04-04 UTC+2

3月12日美國市場新聞摘要

期貨因新關稅暴跌:Nike 和 Boeing 受創最重。恐慌指數上升 美國股市在四月開盤時大幅下跌。

Irina Maksimova 13:24 2025-04-03 UTC+2

特朗普對進口商品加徵10%關稅,市場陷入緊張,黃金和歐元飆升

經過動盪的交易環境後,儘管開盤動盪,但美國股市最終上漲,華爾街劇烈反彈。大部分的動能來自於最後幾小時的交易,而投資者急於在特朗普總統重大經濟宣布之前部署。

Thomas Frank 10:55 2025-04-03 UTC+2

100億美元:錯誤的代價。強生再次成為焦點

資產負債表的指標處於動盪狀態。航空類股下跌。

14:26 2025-04-02 UTC+2

4月2日美國市場新聞摘要

在唐納·川普發表關於關稅的演講前,市場參與者需要消化一系列的經濟數據。投資者密切關注他的宣布,就像等待一場重要的首映。

Natalia Andreeva 12:44 2025-04-02 UTC+2

100億美元:錯誤的代價?J&J再次陷入法律風暴

儘管投資者因唐納德·特朗普宣布新貿易關稅前的緊張情緒而緊繃,美國股市週二在關鍵的 S&P 500 和納斯達克綜合指數收盤上升。 最近幾週,金融市場經歷高度波動。

Thomas Frank 08:02 2025-04-02 UTC+2

2025年第一季度:市場見證自2022年以來最大幅度的利率下降

美國股市在2025年第一季度以下跌結束。標普500指數和納斯達克綜合指數錄得自2022年以來最弱的季度表現,受到環繞唐納德·特朗普新經濟策略的不確定性影響。

Thomas Frank 12:03 2025-04-01 UTC+2

4月1日美國市場新聞摘要

美國股市指數在當日交易中出現混合結果:S&P 500 上漲了0.55%,而納斯達克100則下降了0.14%。這種不確定性來自特朗普政府可能引入的新關稅。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 11:37 2025-04-01 UTC+2

黃金在危機中閃耀:全球動盪中錄得自1986年以來最佳季度表現

週一,由於美國總統川普的強烈言辭,全球市場陷入混亂,他暗示計劃將關稅措施擴展至幾乎所有國家。其言論加深了投資者對不斷升級的全球貿易衝突的焦慮,這可能會將世界經濟拖入衰退。

12:51 2025-03-31 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.