Forex Analysis & Reviews: 27.03.2025 - Gold Knows the Path to...

Live Chat

InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally

This section features the most important information about trading with InstaForex. We provide both analysis from leading experts for experienced traders and articles on trading conditions for beginners. Our services will help increase your profit potential.

Become Trader

Account Opening

See also

Trading Conditions

Forex Analytics

Charts

This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.

Start as Beginner

How to start trading

Useful information

Training and recordings

InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.

Become Investor

PAMM System

ForexCopy System

Passive investments

OYS account

Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.

Become Partner

Main Page

Partner Area

Advantages for Affiliates

Registration

This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.

All Promo Campaigns

Bonuses

Contests

Events

Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.

Full details

Forums

We are in social networks

Forex humour

Forex Portal

InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.

Learn More

History

Why Choose Us

InstaSport

Regulation

Company News

Awards

InstaForex Stars

InstaForex Offline

Headquarters

Key documents

Social Responsibility

InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally

27.03.2025 11:55 AM

Gold Knows the Path to Victory

Gold was not a market favorite following Donald Trump's victory in the November elections. In fact, it pulled back once the red wave became clear and the Republican's return to the White House appeared imminent. Many investors believed that deregulation and tax cuts were a direct path to a stronger U.S. dollar and a rally in Treasury yields. However, by spring it became clear that the 47th president of the United States is a dangerous man doing dangerous things. All the better for the precious metal, which typically rises in anticipation of disruptive events in financial markets.

And the disruptions didn't take long to arrive. Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on foreign cars dealt another blow to the S&P 500 and reignited demand for XAU/USD. Goldman Sachs immediately raised its gold forecast from $3,100 to $3,300 by the end of 2025, citing strong capital inflows into ETFs and insatiable demand from central banks. In response to the West freezing Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves, central banks have increased their gold purchases fivefold since 2022. Holdings in specialized exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have grown by 154 tonnes since the beginning of the year.

Gold and ETF Holdings Dynamics

In truth, gold simply knows the system very well. Its flow from Europe to the U.S. on the back of tariff expectations from the White House triggered a record U.S. trade deficit in January of $155.6 billion. And the situation didn't improve in February. According to Santander US Capital Markets, the negative trade balance is projected to reach $162 billion. Gold exports from Switzerland—a key transit point between the Old and New Worlds—reached 147.4 tonnes in February, the second-highest monthly volume on record after January's 193-tonne peak.

As a result, net U.S. exports are falling deep into negative territory, which is contributing to a sharp economic slowdown. Early estimates from the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicator suggested a 2.8% contraction in GDP for Q1. These have since been revised to just +0.2%, a stark contrast to the 3% economic expansion seen throughout most of 2024. That's bad news for markets—but good news for gold.

Switzerland's Gold Exports to the U.S.

The closer the U.S. gets to recession, the more reasons there are to buy XAU/USD. The worse the global economy performs due to the White House's protectionist policies, the better gold tends to do. In this regard, the return of Donald Trump—a dangerous man doing dangerous things—to power creates a strong tailwind for the precious metal. Who knows, perhaps gold will aim for $4,000 per ounce, as forecast by Societe Generale.

Technically, on the daily chart, gold is showing a recovery of its uptrend following a minor pullback. A breakout above resistance at the pivot level of $3,045 per ounce would justify opening long positions. Targets for these positions lie at $3,105 and $3,135.

You have already liked this post today

*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.