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30.06.2022 12:20 PM
Bitcoin is moving to a new local bottom
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The main cryptocurrency has successfully stabilized the market around the $20k round mark. A local pause and an upward correction in the stock market played a big role in this. However, the stabilization pause is over. Bitcoin has broken through the key $20k level and continues to decline towards the lower border of the "calm range." As the cryptocurrency falls, the volume of sales and the influx of coins to crypto exchanges will grow.

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This is due to a combination of factors that boil down to the activation of sellers. The bears accumulated the necessary volumes and began to push the price of Bitcoin. The situation was aggravated by the negative news background, as a result of which investors again began to sell their BTC reserves. Yesterday, US consumer confidence dipped below the expected level. This is an important signal for the future of investment activity. The difficulty in obtaining liquidity and the high probability of bankruptcy of Celsius and Three Arrows Capital negatively affected the general state of the crypto market.

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However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell became the main source of negative forecasts. Powell noted that the task of the body is to ensure the stability of the economy even with a high level of inflation. This statement can be regarded as a fact that prices will continue to rise. Subsequently, Powell said that the Fed has the tools to bring inflation down to 2%, but he cannot give guarantees. The official finished off the market with a statement that the global economy is approaching a recession. His colleagues confirmed that inflation may continue to grow, and aggressive monetary policy will progress.

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It is important to understand that, to some extent, these statements are manipulative in nature. This was also stated by Powell, noting that the markets are moving along with the Fed. However, it is safe to say that the next two weeks run the risk of being extremely volatile if the growth of the main negative economic indicators continues. Officials made a maximum of frightening statements in order for the market to prepare and the blow at the beginning of July would not be so critical. This is exactly what we see in the stock market. The major indices began to decline, preparing for the next phase of decline. The correlation forced Bitcoin to also decline to a local bottom.

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Bloomberg reported that the total fall in the stock market is more than $34 trillion. At the same time, the decline in the main and secondary indices will continue regardless of further fundamental information. The current situation on the cryptocurrency and stock markets is an attempt to protect yourself and your assets at the moment when the main negative reports will be published. With this in mind, the current week may end with an update of the local Bitcoin bottom, regardless of economic factors. This will be due solely to the preventive actions of investors.

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In the future, there are three options for the development of events. The most negative is the continuation of a rigid downward trend due to another underestimation of the inflation rate. A neutral way of development of events is possible if the main indicators stated by the officials are consistent. It is likely that in this case, the markets will react with local growth.

And a positive option is possible only in the case of deliberate manipulation of information by Powell and members of the Fed. In this case, inflation indicators will show a significant decline, and the markets will take advantage of the pause for a local upward movement. However, the current week will be held under the banner of a retest or update of the local bottom of Bitcoin and the entire market.

Artem Petrenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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