विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 26.10.2022

26.10.2022 03:23 PM

Bullish sentiment is very fragile

Although it is obvious to everyone that recent US data has not changed expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by 75 basis points next month, rumors that the policy of aggressive tightening may come to an end next year persist. Analysts also predict problems in Europe: tomorrow, the European Central Bank is expected to sharply raise rates by 75 basis points at once – although many economists now believe that a recession has begun in the eurozone.

Thus, the observed bullish sentiment is very fragile, which will keep the market volatility at a fairly significant level. All attention will continue to be focused on the cycle of changes in interest rates on a global scale, as well as on how inflation will behave further.

In this regard, a lot will depend on the energy market and the prices formed there. Oil continues to fluctuate within the channel after a report that showed an increase in crude oil inventories in the United States. Many investors are concerned about the decline in demand amid slowing economic growth. Gold rose as lower Treasury bond yields supported the precious metal.

Premarket

As for the tech giants' reports, Alphabet shares fell 6% in premarket trading after the company reported lower-than-expected quarterly profit and revenue. Alphabet's Google division has seen slower sales growth for the fifth quarter in a row, and advertising revenue on YouTube has fallen for the first time since the company began publishing the results of the new division.

Microsoft securities also lost 6.5% in the premarket after quarterly results, despite exceeding the forecast for net profit. Microsoft expects a significant decline in sales of personal computers, which, in turn, will continue to affect sales of its Windows operating system. The company also predicts the negative impact of a stronger US dollar.

Boeing shares gained 1% in the premarket, despite reporting unexpected quarterly losses and earnings that were below economists' forecasts. The aircraft manufacturer maintained its annual forecast despite difficulties with increasing the production of commercial aircraft.

Hilton Securities gained 2% in the premarket after the company reported a higher-than-expected quarterly profit and raised its annual forecast. The hotel operators continue to benefit from the high travel demand.

Harley shares gained about 2.5% as rising shipments and high prices helped the iconic motorcycle maker beat estimates on the upper and lower indicators in its quarterly results.

Visa reported higher-than-expected profit and revenue for the third quarter. This happened as a result of an increase in the volume of payments. Visa shares rose 1.8% in premarket trading.

As for the technical picture of the S&P500, after yesterday's growth, the day did not start very well. The main task for buyers now is to protect the support: $3,808. As long as trading is conducted above this level, we can expect continued demand for risky assets. This will also create good prerequisites for further strengthening of the trading instrument and a breakout of $3,835. Only such a scenario will strengthen the hope for an upward correction with an exit to the resistance level of $3,861. The furthest target will be in the area of $3,905. In the case of a downward movement, buyers are simply obliged to declare themselves in the area of $3,808 and $3,773. A breakdown of these ranges will quickly push the trading instrument to both $3,735 and $3,699, as well as open up the possibility of updating the support of $3,661.

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