विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 25.04.2023

25.04.2023 09:22 AM

Hot forecast for EURUSD on 25/04/2023

In theory, the market should have behaved quite calmly yesterday, since the macroeconomic calendar was completely empty. However, the euro showed quite good growth, which began immediately after the announcement of Isabel Schnabel's interview. Instead of providing a description of what the European Central Bank board member talked about, it's better to just quote only one phrase from Schnabel: "Current data suggests that fifty basis points (referring to a rate hike) are not excluded." Moreover, these words were spoken at the very beginning of the interview. To be completely accurate, this is the answer to the second question. So the euro's growth should not come as a surprise.

Now, there is an attempt at a small pullback. However, it appears that it will be quite modest and, most importantly, short-lived. After the opening of the US trading session, the dollar might go back to weakening. The reason will be data on the US housing market. In particular, the pace of housing price growth is expected to slow down from 5.3% to 3.9%, which will also contribute to the overall slowdown in inflation. In addition, sales of new homes are likely to decrease by 0.5%. So we have a combination of both inflation slowdown and a decline in consumer activity, which will clearly put pressure on the dollar.

The EURUSD pair ended its weekly stagnation with an upward momentum, as a result of which the quote successfully climbed above the control level of 1.1000. This led to an increase in the volume of long positions, which in turn brought the euro back to the local high of the medium-term uptrend.

During the sharp price change, on the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator locally touched the overbought zone. This technical signal coincides with the control convergence of the price with the high of the medium-term.

On the four-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs completed the intertwining stage and has since then moved upwards, which coincides with the overall sentiment in the market.

Outlook

We can assume that the area of 1.1060/1.1080 will have a negative impact on the volume of long positions, which may lead to a decline, and as a result, a pullback. However, the very fact that the price returned to the area of the medium-term uptrend indicates bullish sentiment among market participants. Thus, keeping the price above the 1.1100 level can prolong the upward cycle.

The complex indicator analysis points to an upward cycle in the short-term, mid-term and intraday periods.

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