Forex Analysis & Reviews: 28.06.2023 - Fed to cut key rate this...

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28.06.2023 01:43 PM

Fed to cut key rate this year, while ECB and BoE to do this in 2024

Today, the US stock market is restoring balance after yesterday's rally that stopped amid the news about chip production. According to HSBC Asset Management, from the fourth quarter of the year, the US economy will begin to decline. This will continue for about a year. The EU economy will also see a recession in 2024.

Analysts of the British central bank stated that fears about recession could become true in many countries as fiscal and monetary policies are not synchronized with stock and bond markets. Although the risk is really high, as Europe lags behind the US, the macroeconomic indicators have become a bit better. Nevertheless, the countries are in a moderate recession in terms of profit and the number of corporate defaults is also gradually increasing, analysts say. However, high inflation is decreasing relatively quickly. This will give policymakers a chance to quickly lower rates in the future.

Despite the hawkish stance of the central banks and resilient inflation, especially at the base level, HSBC Asset Management expects the Fed to lower interest rates by the end of 2023, and the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will follow it next year.

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Shares of electric truck manufacturer Lordstown Motors fell by more than 17% yesterday and dropped by another 10% in today's premarket trading. Lordstown Motors is suing Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn over a $170 million financing deal.

Walgreens Boots Alliance shares fell by 9.3% at the end of the day after the retail pharmacy chain lowered its annual earnings outlook to $4-4.05 per share from a previous forecast of $4.45-$4.65 per share. Walgreens also reported adjusted earnings per share for the third fiscal quarter of $1, which failed to come in line with the forecast. During the premarket trading, the company's shares lost only about 0.5%.

Delta Air Lines shares rose by 6.8% after the airline left its annual profit outlook at $6 per share, which is the upper limit of the previously set range. Delta said it was supported by high demand. In the premarket session, the shares rose by only 0.5%.

As for the technical picture of the S&P500, demand for the index increased. Buyers have a chance to continue the upward trend, but bulls need to return $4,383 and $4,416 at all costs as this will allow a jump to $4,447. They should also take control over $4,488, which will strengthen the bullish sentiment. In case of a downward movement caused by a lower appetite for risk, buyers should become active in the area of $4,350. A breakout will quickly push the trading instrument back to $4,320 and open the way to $4,290.

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